2025 NBA Finals Preview and Predictions

OUR 2025 Finals matchup proves one thing: The NBA is still in good hands. We have seen an influx of young, talented teams make waves in the playoffs — none more impactful than the two gracing this year’s Finals. Out of the orange and blue corner, we have THE best team in the NBA the entire season, delivering firepower from their first to third units. Out of the gold and blue corner, we have a relentless and hungry young team who has never seen any deficit too large. It’s the Oklahoma City Thunder against the Indiana Pacers. This will be fun.

Starting Five

OKC will sport the most versatile starting unit in the league, which is the primary contributor to their season-long dominance. Recently crowned NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be spearheading their offense. He is averaging a whopping 32.7 points per game this season — and nearly 30 a game this playoffs. Their wings will feature 3-and-D guards Jalen WIlliams and Lu Dort, who combine for 39 percent from three this season, and can defend multiple positions. Their frontcourt houses twin towers Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein — the former of whom is hailed as a “unicorn” because of his vast offensive arsenal given his height, and the latter of whom is a rebounding and shot-blocking specialist.

Indiana’s starting five is no slouch either, having taken down the likes of the Cleveland and New York. Highlighting their unit is two-time All-NBA Third Team member Tyrese Haliburton, who is best known for his dominant scoring, hot shooting and clutch performances. Joining him outside the perimeter are secondary playmaker and mid-range threat Andrew Nembhard, and three-point specialist Aaron Nesmith. Their frontcourt will see three-level scorer, Eastern Conference Finals MVP, and 2019 champion Pascal Siakam, and two-way big man Myles Turner.

The gap between both starting units is as close as one would think, but I would give the edge to OKC because of its defensive versatility. This was evident in their ability to limit the production of Nikola Jokic and Anthony Edwards in their previous two rounds. Indiana’s defense, on the other hand, is not as consistent and fluid.

EDGE: Thunder

Bench

OKC’s bench is, by and large, the deepest in the league this season. While the average team may only utilize two to three bench players a game, OKC can run up to six. Highlighting their bench unit is two-way guard Alex Caruso who notably slowed down Nikola Jokic in their Game 7. Potentially seeing meaningful minutes would be hard-nosed forwards Kenrich Williams and Cason Wallace, three-point specialists Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe, and budding two-way forward Jaylin Williams. Coach Mark Daigneault has the capability to mix-and-match his rotations depending on matchups and game situations – a privilege not many teams have.

Indiana’s bench is also quite deep with up to five players potentially seeing action. It features veteran scorer TJ McConnell, high-flying forward Obi Toppin, up-and-coming scorer Bennedict Mathurin, 3-and-D wing Ben Sheppard, and rebounding specialist Tony Bradley.

Both benches can produce steady scoring; but just like the starting unit, OKC earns the slight edge because of its defensive ability and overall fluidity. Indiana’s offense will be in deeper trouble if they see multiple skilled defenders who can give its best scorers various looks.

EDGE: Thunder

Coaching

OKC coach and 2024 NBA Coach of the Year Mark Daigneault is easily one of the league’s best, having seen his team evolve from a rebuilding team to back-to-back Western Conference 1st seed clinchers. However, I value the experience and championship pedigree of Indiana coach Rick Carlisle, who guided the 2011 Dallas Mavericks towards its famous upset of the Big 3 Miami Heat. In a series featuring young core pieces from both sides, having a coach who has already seen the mountain top is invaluable. This is where Indiana will gain ground amidst their personnel disadvantages.

EDGE: Pacers

Regular Season Head-to-Head

OKC won both of their regular season games against Indiana. They won narrowly in Indianapolis on December 27th, on the back of 45 points from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. They went on to win in a blowout on March 30th in Oklahoma City, with SGA leading the way anew with 33 points.

X-Factor

OKC: Chet Holmgren

We saw what could happen when a “unicorn” gets unleashed in the Finals, where Boston Celtics center Kristaps Porzingis dominated the Dallas Mavericks in Game 1 last year. Given that Indiana has no player above 7 feet, Holmgren would unlock similar defensive mismatches which would allow him to dominate any matchup thrown at him. He could be the reason why the series ends much earlier.

Indiana: Andrew Nembhard

In Indiana’s playoff losses, Nembhard averaged 7.75 PPG on 32.4 percent field goal percentage. In their wins, his point average doubled, scoring 15.3 PPG on 51.1 percent FG. He is utilized as a tertiary shot creator behind Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, a secondary playmaker, and has also made strides as a perimeter defender. If Nembhard can continue his productivity as a scorer, he could burden OKC’s defense a tad more.

Key Questions

Indiana has been known for staging dramatic 4th quarter comebacks in this year’s playoffs — having completed at least one miraculous comeback in each of the three rounds thus far. Yes, OKC has the highest point differential in NBA history with an incredible +12.9, but this could all go to waste if they give Indiana a mere window of opportunities. They also notably ended up on the wrong side of a dramatic comeback, blowing a nine-point lead with three minutes remaining against Denver in Game 1 of the second round. For as long as the defense eliminates Indiana’s 30-foot prayers, and they consistently score in the clutch as they did all season, then they would be equipped to quash any Indiana comeback bid.

Indiana ranked a mediocre 14th in terms of defensive rating this season. In the playoffs, they have given up 113.6 PPG — nearly nine points more than OKC’s output. While their defense has taken significant strides this season, it has to be in perfect form to take on OKC’s own Death 5. They have to effectively limit SGA’s production (without fouling, at that), and their big men will have to hold their ground against OKC’s twin towers. Doing both consistently over the course of seven games is a gargantuan task. However, if their defense steps up, they might have the keys to a potential upset — given that their offensive firepower can counter the production of any team.

Prediction

Both teams’ offenses are truly top-notch. If they both end up in shootouts down the stretch, then we could potentially see clutch endings that could go either way.

Ultimately, I believe that the deciding factor of this series is the classic, cliché belief that “defense wins championships”. OKC recorded remarkable defensive ratings of 106.7 PPG in the regular season and 104.7 PPG in the playoffs — both #1 in the NBA. Beyond the stats, I see that OKC has adequate personnel to defend and match up against Indiana’s top offensive threats. They have the size, skill, and coaching to limit Indiana’s offensive production down the stretch.

However, Indiana’s offensive prowess could very well lead them to at least a win in the series. Beating Milwaukee, Cleveland, and New York was by no means easy — hence, they have proven time and again that they can stand toe-to-toe with the league’s best if all of their offensive weapons work harmoniously.

I see OKC imposing their will early and winning their first two home games. Indiana, aided by a jubilant home crowd, will take advantage and win a fairly close Game 3. However, just as they did against Minnesota, I expect OKC to lock in defensively and finish off Games 4 and 5 – the latter in convincing fashion. They have too many defensive reinforcements which they can utilize to counter Indiana’s offensive weapons. With this, the franchise will earn its first NBA championship since it relocated to Oklahoma City from Seattle in 2009.

Overall Prediction: Thunder in 5

FINALS MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31 PPG, 6 RPG, 7 APG)